GS+ is Toe the Slab's single-start score for MLB starting pitchers. It combines line quality, workload, run prevention, strikeouts, walks, park, opponent, and slate context.

What does Heat Check measure?

Heat Check ranks qualified starters by recent rolling GS+ form and separates them into bands from on fire to ice.

How are probable matchups ranked?

Upcoming games are ranked by watch score, which combines the top arm, starter pairing quality, and matchup context.

Toe the Slab

Methodology

GS+, Form, and watch scores

Toe the Slab turns every start into one comparable score, then uses recent form and matchup context to rank probable starters before first pitch.

How rankings work

Game Score+ composition

context-v7

Start line

IP / K / ER / traffic

Length and missed bats lift the score; runs, hits, and walks pull it back.

Context

Park / opponent

The same line gets adjusted for run environment and matchup quality.

Display

20-80 GS+

The raw total is calibrated onto a scouting-style range so slate ranks are easy to scan.

Slate range20-66

Average43.6

Scale20-80

Formula transparency

GS+ component weights

Raw GS+ starts at 45, adds length and strikeouts, subtracts runs, hits, and walks, then applies context and a 20-80 display transform.

Baseline: +45
Length: +3.0 per IP
Strikeouts: +2.2 per K
Earned runs: -5.0 per ER
Hits: -1.2 per H
Walks: -1.5 per BB
Whiff context: +0.35 per pct point
Velocity context: +1.75 per mph
Park context: (1.00 - run factor) x 12
Display transform: 50 + (raw - 59) x 0.72, capped 20-80

Completed starts use line, park, opponent, and verified pitch-event context when available. Upcoming cards use MLB team hitting splits vs the starter's handedness for OPS, K%, BB%, and ISO matchup context.

GS+

GS+ scores a single completed start on a 0-100 style scale, with league-average work around 50. It starts with the pitcher's line, then adjusts for workload, traffic, runs, strikeouts, walks, park, opponent, and slate context. Daily boards rank qualified starts of at least 3.0 IP; openers and short outings are listed separately.

Form

Form is a rolling view of recent GS+ across a pitcher's qualified starts. Heat Check bands highlight starters who are running above, near, or below their recent baseline.

Watch Score

Watch score ranks probable matchups before the game. It combines the strongest arm in the game, the quality of the pairing, and the matchup context so the best games rise first.

Pitching Duels

Duel scoring rewards games where both starters bring strong current form. Mismatch scoring highlights games with the largest gap between the two probable starters.

Start here

Latest ranked starts

The daily leaderboard is the canonical archive for completed starts and links each ranked line to its start log, pitcher page, and score breakdown.

View ranked starts