Toe the Slab

Upcoming Starting Matchups

One card per game, ranked by starter form and matchup context. Probables are grouped head-to-head instead of duplicated by pitcher.

Filters / Pregame only / Watch rank / All teams

Jun 16

Must-Watch Games

Ranked by starter form, pairing quality, and matchup context. Matchup values are shown with a slate rank, never as a bare number.

Data through / MLB Stats API / Baseball Savant / Open-Meteo

Week view

Must-watch

TB @ LAD

Pregame / / UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium

Park 0.9860F / 2 mph wind

Top watch score

#1 tonight

TB / away

Drew Rasmussen

Form 56.4 · 2.08 ERA

→Steady +0.0
6d rest88 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 57.06.0 IP / 6.7 K / 1.3 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.805 OPS20.3% KOPS rank 1st
Proj K 6.7 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Drew Rasmussen recent form GS+: 40, 62, 33, 72, 75

The hook

53.5

score

Top watch score in this group

TBForm clashLAD

Drew Rasmussen recent form GS+: 40, 62, 33, 72, 75

Justin Wrobleski recent form GS+: 48, 33, 70, 55, 33

LAD / home

Justin Wrobleski

Form 47.8 · 3.77 ERA

→Steady +0.0
5d rest91 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 48.45.2 IP / 4.2 K / 2.0 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.735 OPS19.7% KOPS rank 10th
Proj K 4.2 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Justin Wrobleski recent form GS+: 48, 33, 70, 55, 33

Top arm

56.4

Pairing

52.1

#2

Must-watch

LAA @ AZ

Pregame / / Chase Field / #2 of 15 watch rank

Park 1.03Indoor

10th matchup

Top arm

57.0

Pairing

48.6

Reid Detmers

LAA

Form 57.0 · 3.62 ERA

→Steady +1.3
6d rest92 pitch avg
K-rate ↑
Proj GS+ 56.76.1 IP / 8.2 K / 2.5 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.763 OPS16.8% KOPS rank 5th
Proj K 8.2 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Reid Detmers recent form GS+: 30, 78, 46, 62, 69

Merrill Kelly

AZ

Form 40.2 · 3.99 ERA

→Steady -2.6
5d rest87 pitch avg
K-rate ↓
Proj GS+ 39.96.0 IP / 2.8 K / 2.7 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.712 OPS24.8% KOPS rank 13th
Proj K 2.8 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Merrill Kelly recent form GS+: 43, 51, 39, 24, 44

#3

Must-watch

BAL @ SEA

Pregame / / T-Mobile Park / #3 of 15 watch rank

Park 0.95Indoor

4th matchup

Top arm

52.0

Pairing

51.6

Brandon Young

BAL

Form 51.2 · 2.08 ERA

→Steady +0.0
6d rest87 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 51.66.0 IP / 4.5 K / 1.3 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.745 OPS22.2% KOPS rank 9th
Proj K 4.5 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Brandon Young recent form GS+: 41, 55, 52, 46, 62

Logan Gilbert

SEA

Form 52.0 · 3.34 ERA

→Steady +0.0
7d rest97 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 51.66.0 IP / 6.1 K / 2.2 ERmedium confidence
Proj K 6.1 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Logan Gilbert recent form GS+: 36, 59, 59, 50, 56

#4

Worth it

MIA @ PHI

Pregame / / Citizens Bank Park / #4 of 15 watch rank

Park 1.0165F / 6 mph wind

1st matchup

Top arm

49.8

Pairing

49.1

Tyler Phillips

MIA

Form 48.3 · 1.98 ERA

→Steady +0.0
Small sample5d rest67 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 48.44.2 IP / 3.4 K / 0.9 ERlow confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.688 OPS23.4% KOPS rank 25th
Proj K 3.4 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Tyler Phillips recent form GS+: 51, 38, 56

Jesús Luzardo

PHI

Form 49.8 · 2.57 ERA

→Steady -1.0
6d rest96 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 49.95.2 IP / 4.6 K / 1.5 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.699 OPS21.4% KOPS rank 22nd
Proj K 4.6 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Jesús Luzardo recent form GS+: 49, 62, 51, 31, 56

Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#5

Worth it

TOR @ BOS

Pregame / / Fenway Park / #5 of 15 watch rank

Park 1.0564F / 3 mph wind

3rd matchup

Top arm

49.8

Pairing

47.9

TBD

TOR

TBD

Payton Tolle

BOS

Form 49.8 · 3.23 ERA

→Steady +0.0
7d rest91 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 48.96.0 IP / 5.3 K / 2.1 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.722 OPS19.2% KOPS rank 18th
Proj K 5.3 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Payton Tolle recent form GS+: 54, 51, 52, 55, 37

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#6

Worth it

KC @ WSH

Pregame / / Nationals Park / #6 of 15 watch rank

Park 1.0074F / 10 mph wind

8th matchup

Top arm

50.2

Pairing

46.3

Michael Wacha

KC

Form 42.4 · 4.91 ERA

→Steady -0.4
5d rest92 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 42.36.0 IP / 4.4 K / 3.3 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.729 OPS20.8% KOPS rank 12th
Proj K 4.4 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Michael Wacha recent form GS+: 59, 52, 28, 36, 37

Foster Griffin

WSH

Form 50.2 · 5.46 ERA

↑Rising +4.9
6d rest88 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 50.15.1 IP / 5.2 K / 3.1 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.700 OPS21.7% KOPS rank 21st
Proj K 5.2 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Foster Griffin recent form GS+: 34, 62, 46, 53, 56

#7

Worth it

CWS @ NYY

Pregame / / Yankee Stadium / #7 of 15 watch rank

Park 1.0365F / 8 mph wind

6th matchup

Top arm

48.8

Pairing

48.3

Davis Martin

CWS

Form 47.8 · 3.81 ERA

→Steady +0.0
6d rest93 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 47.75.2 IP / 5.0 K / 2.2 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.748 OPS22.9% KOPS rank 7th
Proj K 5.0 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Davis Martin recent form GS+: 60, 43, 55, 20, 61

Gerrit Cole

NYY

Form 48.8 · 2.45 ERA

→Steady +0.0
Small sample7d rest79 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 47.95.2 IP / 4.3 K / 1.4 ERlow confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.723 OPS24.0% KOPS rank 17th
Proj K 4.3 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Gerrit Cole recent form GS+: 51, 68, 34, 42

Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#8

Worth it

CLE @ MIL

Pregame / / American Family Field / #8 of 15 watch rank

Park 1.00Forecast unavailable

9th matchup

Top arm

49.6

Pairing

45.5

Slade Cecconi

CLE

Form 49.6 · 3.58 ERA

→Steady +0.0
7d rest84 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 48.85.2 IP / 4.3 K / 2.1 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.755 OPS20.4% KOPS rank 3rd
Proj K 4.3 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Slade Cecconi recent form GS+: 52, 47, 40, 56, 53

Robert Gasser

MIL

Form 41.3 · 6.38 ERA

→Steady +0.0
Small sample7d rest86 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 40.54.2 IP / 4.3 K / 3.0 ERlow confidence
Proj K 4.3 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Robert Gasser recent form GS+: 43, 40, 50, 32

Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#9

Background

SD @ STL

Pregame / / Busch Stadium / #9 of 15 watch rank

Park 0.9768F / 5 mph wind

12th matchup

Top arm

49.6

Pairing

46.6

Michael King

SD

Form 43.6 · 4.37 ERA

→Steady -1.4
6d rest91 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 44.06.0 IP / 4.6 K / 2.8 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.718 OPS16.7% KOPS rank 12th
Proj K 4.6 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Michael King recent form GS+: 70, 32, 33, 42, 41

Andre Pallante

STL

Form 49.6 · 2.96 ERA

→Steady +0.0
6d rest89 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 50.05.1 IP / 4.3 K / 1.6 ERmedium confidence
Proj K 4.3 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Andre Pallante recent form GS+: 58, 52, 33, 54, 51

#10

Background

NYM @ CIN

Pregame / / Great American Ball Park / #10 of 15 watch rank

Park 1.0866F / 4 mph wind / 29% rain

2nd matchup

Top arm

46.0

Pairing

45.3

Kodai Senga

NYM

Limited

Brady Singer

CIN

Form 44.5 · 5.21 ERA

→Steady +0.0
Small sample6d rest91 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 44.04.2 IP / 4.2 K / 2.5 ERlow confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.668 OPS22.0% KOPS rank 27th
Proj K 4.2 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Brady Singer recent form GS+: 36, 41, 49, 52

Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#11

Background

MIN @ TEX

Pregame / / Globe Life Field / #11 of 15 watch rank

Park 1.00Indoor

5th matchup

Top arm

47.2

Pairing

44.0

Zebby Matthews

MIN

Form 40.8 · 5.20 ERA

→Steady -3.5
5d rest94 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 40.86.0 IP / 4.9 K / 3.5 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.695 OPS21.6% KOPS rank 24th
Proj K 4.9 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Zebby Matthews recent form GS+: 55, 49, 29, 43, 28

Kumar Rocker

TEX

Form 47.2 · 2.81 ERA

→Steady +0.0
5d rest89 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 47.25.0 IP / 3.5 K / 1.6 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.694 OPS22.0% KOPS rank 18th
Proj K 3.5 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Kumar Rocker recent form GS+: 50, 44, 53, 46, 43

#12

Background

DET @ HOU

Pregame / / Daikin Park / #12 of 15 watch rank

Park 0.99Indoor

11th matchup

Top arm

46.0

Pairing

44.4

Framber Valdez

DET

Form 42.8 · 4.19 ERA

→Steady -1.7
6d rest89 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 42.95.2 IP / 3.9 K / 2.4 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.726 OPS22.3% KOPS rank 13th
Proj K 3.9 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Framber Valdez recent form GS+: 34, 57, 40, 50, 33

Hunter Brown

HOU

Limited

Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#13

Background

SF @ ATL

Pregame / / Truist Park / #13 of 15 watch rank

Park 1.0170F / 6 mph wind

13th matchup

Top arm

45.8

Pairing

44.4

Adrian Houser

SF

Form 43.0 · 5.09 ERA

→Steady +0.0
7d rest85 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 42.24.2 IP / 4.2 K / 2.4 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.748 OPS20.9% KOPS rank 6th
Proj K 4.2 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Adrian Houser recent form GS+: 48, 42, 32, 45, 48

Grant Holmes

ATL

Form 45.8 · 3.55 ERA

→Steady +0.0
7d rest82 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 45.05.0 IP / 4.9 K / 2.0 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.731 OPS19.9% KOPS rank 11th
Proj K 4.9 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Grant Holmes recent form GS+: 55, 52, 41, 46, 35

#14

Background

COL @ CHC

Pregame / / Wrigley Field / #14 of 15 watch rank

Park 1.0458F / 6 mph wind

14th matchup

Top arm

44.0

Pairing

40.9

Ryan Feltner

COL

Form 44.0 · 3.86 ERA

→Steady +0.0
Small sample5d rest73 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 44.05.1 IP / 2.8 K / 2.2 ERlow confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.730 OPS22.3% KOPS rank 11th
Proj K 2.8 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Ryan Feltner recent form GS+: 53, 52, 27

Edward Cabrera

CHC

Form 37.8 · 7.56 ERA

→Steady +0.0
Small sample5d rest78 pitch avg
Short outings
Proj GS+ 37.84.1 IP / 3.7 K / 3.4 ERlow confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.749 OPS22.5% KOPS rank 5th
Proj K 3.7 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Edward Cabrera recent form GS+: 39, 43, 22, 47

Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#15

Background

PIT @ ATH

Pregame / / Sutter Health Park / #15 of 15 watch rank

Park 1.0061F / 9 mph wind

15th matchup

Top arm

38.0

Pairing

36.6

Mitch Keller

PIT

Form 35.2 · 8.70 ERA

→Steady +0.9
5d rest92 pitch avg
Getting hit
Proj GS+ 35.45.0 IP / 3.8 K / 4.8 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.764 OPS25.0% KOPS rank 4th
Proj K 3.8 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Mitch Keller recent form GS+: 41, 53, 22, 30, 30

Jack Perkins

ATH

Form 38.0

→Steady +0.0
Small sample6d rest82 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 38.24.0 IP / 5.0 K / 4.0 ERlow confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.757 OPS22.5% KOPS rank 2nd
Proj K 5.0 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Jack Perkins recent form GS+: 36, 40

Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.