Toe the Slab

Upcoming Starting Matchups

One card per game, ranked by starter form and matchup context. Probables are grouped head-to-head instead of duplicated by pitcher.

Filters / Pregame only / Watch rank / All teams

Jun 17

Must-Watch Games

Ranked by starter form, pairing quality, and matchup context. Matchup values are shown with a slate rank, never as a bare number.

Data through / MLB Stats API / Baseball Savant / Open-Meteo

Week view

Must-watch

COL @ CHC

Pregame / / Wrigley Field

Park 1.0461F / 9 mph wind / 53% rain

Top watch score

#1 tonight

COL / away

Sean Sullivan

Limited form sample

Last: vs ATH / 3.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K / GS+ 51

Proj GS+ 51.13.5 IP / 2.3 Klow confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.725 OPS21.0% KOPS rank 14th
Proj K 2.3 / prop pendingTeam total pending

The hook

55.4

score

Top watch score in this group

Form clash pending

CHC / home

Javier Assad

Limited form sample

Last: vs SF / 6.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K / GS+ 58

Proj GS+ 58.16.0 IP / 5.0 Klow confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.749 OPS22.5% KOPS rank 5th
Proj K 5.0 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Top arm

58.0

Pairing

54.5

Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.Opponent split context pending.

#2

Must-watch

TB @ LAD

Pregame / / UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium / #2 of 14 watch rank

Park 0.9866F / 8 mph wind

4th matchup

Top arm

57.2

Pairing

51.1

Shane McClanahan

TB

Form 45.0 · 4.81 ERA

→Steady +0.0
5d rest80 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 45.35.0 IP / 5.1 K / 2.6 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.740 OPS20.6% KOPS rank 9th
Proj K 5.1 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Shane McClanahan recent form GS+: 43, 56, 49, 38, 39

Shohei Ohtani

LAD

Form 57.2 · 1.17 ERA

→Steady +0.0
7d rest97 pitch avg
Run prevention
Proj GS+ 56.76.0 IP / 6.1 K / 0.7 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.688 OPS17.7% KOPS rank 20th
Proj K 6.1 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Shohei Ohtani recent form GS+: 65, 57, 58, 60, 46

#3

Must-watch

CLE @ MIL

Pregame / / American Family Field / #3 of 14 watch rank

Park 1.00Forecast unavailable

1st matchup

Top arm

56.0

Pairing

49.2

Gavin Williams

CLE

Form 56.0 · 2.59 ERA

→Steady +0.0
9d rest94 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 55.26.1 IP / 6.4 K / 1.8 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.690 OPS21.2% KOPS rank 19th
Proj K 6.4 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Gavin Williams recent form GS+: 52, 76, 56, 50, 46

Brandon Sproat

MIL

Form 42.4 · 5.63 ERA

→Steady +0.0
7d rest83 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 41.64.2 IP / 3.7 K / 2.6 ERmedium confidence
Proj K 3.7 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Brandon Sproat recent form GS+: 44, 45, 38, 35, 50

#4

Worth it

DET @ HOU

Pregame / / Daikin Park / #4 of 14 watch rank

Park 0.99Indoor

3rd matchup

Top arm

56.0

Pairing

51.3

Casey Mize

DET

Form 56.0 · 1.08 ERA

→Steady +0.0
Small sample21d rest75 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 55.35.2 IP / 4.4 K / 0.6 ERlow confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.726 OPS22.3% KOPS rank 13th
Proj K 4.4 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Casey Mize recent form GS+: 58, 52, 58

Peter Lambert

HOU

Form 46.6 · 4.23 ERA

→Steady +0.0
7d rest94 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 45.95.2 IP / 4.5 K / 2.4 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.719 OPS23.1% KOPS rank 19th
Proj K 4.5 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Peter Lambert recent form GS+: 44, 43, 42, 49, 55

Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#5

Worth it

KC @ WSH

Pregame / / Nationals Park / #5 of 14 watch rank

Park 1.0087F / 10 mph wind

5th matchup

Top arm

50.8

Pairing

49.7

Luinder Avila

KC

Form 48.5 · 1.80 ERA

→Steady +0.0
Small sample11d rest78 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 47.25.0 IP / 4.0 K / 1.1 ERlow confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.729 OPS20.8% KOPS rank 12th
Proj K 4.0 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Luinder Avila recent form GS+: 49, 48

Zack Littell

WSH

Form 50.8 · 2.14 ERA

→Steady +0.0
Small sample11d rest74 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 49.55.1 IP / 3.6 K / 1.3 ERlow confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.700 OPS21.7% KOPS rank 21st
Proj K 3.6 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Zack Littell recent form GS+: 54, 46, 50, 53

Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#6

Worth it

CWS @ NYY

Pregame / / Yankee Stadium / #6 of 14 watch rank

Park 1.0364F / 5 mph wind

10th matchup

Top arm

50.8

Pairing

49.2

Anthony Kay

CWS

Form 47.6 · 3.73 ERA

→Steady +0.4
5d rest89 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 47.55.0 IP / 4.4 K / 2.1 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.748 OPS22.9% KOPS rank 7th
Proj K 4.4 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Anthony Kay recent form GS+: 53, 53, 46, 30, 56

Carlos Rodón

NYY

Form 50.8 · 2.70 ERA

→Steady +0.0
7d rest94 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 49.95.1 IP / 5.7 K / 1.5 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.775 OPS23.5% KOPS rank 3rd
Proj K 5.7 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Carlos Rodón recent form GS+: 46, 54, 49, 57, 48

#7

Worth it

LAA @ AZ

Pregame / / Chase Field / #7 of 14 watch rank

Park 1.03Indoor

2nd matchup

Top arm

49.0

Pairing

48.5

Sam Aldegheri

LAA

Last: vs TB / GS+ 48

Limited

Eduardo Rodriguez

AZ

Form 49.0 · 2.97 ERA

→Steady +1.0
5d rest93 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 48.75.2 IP / 4.2 K / 1.8 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.707 OPS24.8% KOPS rank 20th
Proj K 4.2 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Eduardo Rodriguez recent form GS+: 60, 50, 53, 42, 40

Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#8

Worth it

PIT @ ATH

Pregame / / Sutter Health Park / #8 of 14 watch rank

Park 1.0063F / 9 mph wind

14th matchup

Top arm

51.8

Pairing

41.6

Braxton Ashcraft

PIT

Form 51.8 · 4.00 ERA

→Steady +1.1
5d rest90 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 51.96.0 IP / 6.5 K / 2.6 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.747 OPS20.8% KOPS rank 8th
Proj K 6.5 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Braxton Ashcraft recent form GS+: 63, 54, 62, 33, 47

Aaron Civale

ATH

Form 31.3 · 9.00 ERA

→Steady +0.0
Small sample23d rest70 pitch avg
K-rate ↓
Proj GS+ 30.64.2 IP / 1.8 K / 4.2 ERlow confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.757 OPS22.5% KOPS rank 2nd
Proj K 1.8 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Aaron Civale recent form GS+: 42, 31, 21

Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#9

Background

SD @ STL

Pregame / / Busch Stadium / #9 of 14 watch rank

Park 0.9790F / 21 mph wind / 14% rain

Matchup pending

Top arm

46.0

Pairing

43.7

TBD

SD

TBD

Kyle Leahy

STL

Form 41.4 · 5.18 ERA

→Steady +0.0
5d rest82 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 40.75.0 IP / 4.1 K / 3.1 ERmedium confidence
Proj K 4.1 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Kyle Leahy recent form GS+: 46, 37, 49, 36, 39

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.Opponent split context pending.

#10

Background

TOR @ BOS

Pregame / / Fenway Park / #10 of 14 watch rank

Park 1.0564F / 6 mph wind

Matchup pending

Top arm

46.0

Pairing

41.5

TBD

TOR

TBD

Jake Bennett

BOS

Last: vs TB / GS+ 37

Limited

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.Opponent split context pending.

#11

Background

NYM @ CIN

Pregame / / Great American Ball Park / #11 of 14 watch rank

Park 1.0884F / 14 mph wind

11th matchup

Top arm

44.8

Pairing

43.0

Nolan McLean

NYM

Form 41.2 · 5.81 ERA

→Steady -1.1
5d rest93 pitch avg
Walks ↑
Proj GS+ 40.04.2 IP / 4.2 K / 3.0 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.743 OPS24.9% KOPS rank 6th
Proj K 4.2 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Nolan McLean recent form GS+: 31, 28, 44, 54, 49

Nick Lodolo

CIN

Form 44.8 · 4.96 ERA

→Steady +1.8
5d rest97 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 43.65.2 IP / 4.4 K / 3.1 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.668 OPS22.0% KOPS rank 27th
Proj K 4.4 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Nick Lodolo recent form GS+: 42, 56, 44, 33, 49

#12

Background

MIA @ PHI

Pregame / / Citizens Bank Park / #12 of 14 watch rank

Park 1.0180F / 3 mph wind / 30% rain

9th matchup

Top arm

42.6

Pairing

42.3

Sandy Alcantara

MIA

Form 42.6 · 4.76 ERA

→Steady -2.7
5d rest95 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 42.46.2 IP / 5.0 K / 3.3 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.688 OPS23.4% KOPS rank 25th
Proj K 5.0 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Sandy Alcantara recent form GS+: 32, 21, 48, 59, 53

Andrew Painter

PHI

Form 42.0 · 5.33 ERA

→Steady +0.0
11d rest77 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 41.05.0 IP / 3.3 K / 3.0 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.699 OPS21.4% KOPS rank 22nd
Proj K 3.3 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Andrew Painter recent form GS+: 54, 46, 44, 37, 29

#13

Background

BAL @ SEA

Pregame / / T-Mobile Park / #13 of 14 watch rank

Park 0.95Indoor

13th matchup

Top arm

42.0

Pairing

41.3

Kyle Bradish

BAL

Form 42.0 · 3.62 ERA

→Steady -3.7
6d rest91 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 42.45.1 IP / 4.4 K / 2.0 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.745 OPS22.2% KOPS rank 9th
Proj K 4.4 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Kyle Bradish recent form GS+: 49, 49, 56, 26, 30

George Kirby

SEA

Form 40.6 · 6.67 ERA

→Steady +0.0
7d rest94 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 40.25.1 IP / 5.3 K / 3.7 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.752 OPS22.9% KOPS rank 4th
Proj K 5.3 / prop pendingTeam total pending

George Kirby recent form GS+: 35, 42, 38, 37, 51

#14

Background

SF @ ATL

Pregame / / Truist Park / #14 of 14 watch rank

Park 1.0177F / 11 mph wind

12th matchup

Top arm

42.0

Pairing

39.9

Robbie Ray

SF

Form 37.8 · 7.16 ERA

→Steady +0.0
7d rest92 pitch avg
Walks ↑
Proj GS+ 36.74.2 IP / 2.9 K / 3.4 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.737 OPS20.3% KOPS rank 10th
Proj K 2.9 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Robbie Ray recent form GS+: 20, 33, 47, 54, 35

JR Ritchie

ATL

Form 42.0

→Steady +0.0
Small sample30d rest85 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 40.94.1 IP / 3.9 K / 3.0 ERlow confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.711 OPS22.2% KOPS rank 14th
Proj K 3.9 / prop pendingTeam total pending

JR Ritchie recent form GS+: 50, 34

Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.