Toe the Slab

Upcoming Starting Matchups

One card per game, ranked by starter form and matchup context. Probables are grouped head-to-head instead of duplicated by pitcher.

Filters / All statuses / Watch rank / All teams

Jun 18

Must-Watch Games

Ranked by starter form, pairing quality, and matchup context. Matchup values are shown with a slate rank, never as a bare number.

Data through / MLB Stats API / Baseball Savant / Open-Meteo

Week view

Must-watch

NYM @ PHI

Pregame / / Citizens Bank Park

Park 1.0181F / 12 mph wind / 13% rain

Top watch score

#1 tonight

NYM / away

Sean Manaea

Limited form sample

Last: vs ATL / 6.0 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 6 K / GS+ 58

Proj GS+ 57.56.0 IP / 6.0 K / 2.1 ERlow confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.688 OPS23.4% KOPS rank 25th
Proj K 6.0 / prop pendingTeam total pending

The hook

54.6

score

Top watch score in this group

Form clash pending

PHI / home

TBD

Starter TBD / league baseline used

Projection pending

Proj K -- / prop pendingTeam total pending

Top arm

58.0

Pairing

52.0

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.Opponent split context pending.

#2

Must-watch

MIN @ TEX

Pregame / / Globe Life Field / #2 of 9 watch rank

Park 1.00Indoor

1st matchup

Top arm

55.0

Pairing

47.7

Joe Ryan

MIN

Form 55.0 · 2.87 ERA

→Steady -0.5
6d rest100 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 55.06.1 IP / 7.6 K / 1.9 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.709 OPS25.6% KOPS rank 17th
Proj K 7.6 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Joe Ryan recent form GS+: 65, 60, 46, 53, 51

Jack Leiter

TEX

Form 40.4 · 5.13 ERA

→Steady -3.1
6d rest95 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 40.45.1 IP / 4.6 K / 2.9 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.694 OPS22.0% KOPS rank 18th
Proj K 4.6 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Jack Leiter recent form GS+: 38, 41, 64, 28, 31

#3

Must-watch

BAL @ SEA

Pregame / / T-Mobile Park / #3 of 9 watch rank

Park 0.95Indoor

Matchup pending

Top arm

51.8

Pairing

48.9

Shane Baz

BAL

Form 51.8 · 2.39 ERA

→Steady +1.3
6d rest94 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 52.26.0 IP / 4.6 K / 1.5 ERmedium confidence
Proj K 4.6 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Shane Baz recent form GS+: 54, 60, 55, 49, 41

TBD

SEA

TBD

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.Opponent split context pending.

#4

Worth it

TOR @ BOS

Pregame / / Fenway Park / #4 of 9 watch rank

Park 1.0580F / 9 mph wind / 51% rain

5th matchup

Top arm

50.2

Pairing

48.1

TBD

TOR

TBD

Sonny Gray

BOS

Form 50.2 · 2.62 ERA

→Steady -1.6
6d rest83 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 49.75.2 IP / 5.4 K / 1.6 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.722 OPS19.2% KOPS rank 18th
Proj K 5.4 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Sonny Gray recent form GS+: 59, 39, 55, 41, 57

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#5

Worth it

CLE @ MIL

Pregame / / American Family Field / #5 of 9 watch rank

Park 1.00Forecast unavailable

7th matchup

Top arm

48.0

Pairing

46.9

Parker Messick

CLE

Form 48.0 · 3.21 ERA

→Steady -1.2
8d rest90 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 47.25.1 IP / 4.7 K / 1.8 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.755 OPS20.4% KOPS rank 3rd
Proj K 4.7 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Parker Messick recent form GS+: 47, 59, 49, 45, 40

Shane Drohan

MIL

Form 45.7 · 5.28 ERA

→Steady +0.0
Small sample5d rest76 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 45.75.0 IP / 5.2 K / 2.9 ERlow confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.710 OPS20.9% KOPS rank 15th
Proj K 5.2 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Shane Drohan recent form GS+: 47, 45, 45

Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#6

Worth it

LAA @ ATH

Pregame / / Sutter Health Park / #6 of 9 watch rank

Park 1.0060F / 10 mph wind

Matchup pending

Top arm

46.0

Pairing

46.0

TBD

LAA

TBD

TBD

ATH

TBD

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.Opponent split context pending.

#7

Worth it

STL @ KC

Pregame / / Kauffman Stadium / #7 of 9 watch rank

Park 1.0062F / 5 mph wind

6th matchup

Top arm

46.0

Pairing

45.4

Matthew Liberatore

STL

Form 44.8 · 5.65 ERA

→Steady +1.5
5d rest83 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 45.14.2 IP / 5.3 K / 2.6 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.700 OPS21.7% KOPS rank 21st
Proj K 5.3 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Matthew Liberatore recent form GS+: 44, 48, 57, 39, 36

TBD

KC

TBD

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#8

Worth it

CWS @ NYY

Pregame / / Yankee Stadium / #8 of 9 watch rank

Park 1.0380F / 11 mph wind / 10% rain

8th matchup

Top arm

47.0

Pairing

44.2

Sean Burke

CWS

Form 47.0 · 4.62 ERA

→Steady +0.0
5d rest92 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 46.45.0 IP / 5.9 K / 2.7 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.748 OPS22.9% KOPS rank 7th
Proj K 5.9 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Sean Burke recent form GS+: 38, 47, 59, 54, 37

Ryan Weathers

NYY

Form 41.4 · 6.44 ERA

→Steady +0.0
6d rest93 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 40.86.0 IP / 5.5 K / 4.4 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.723 OPS24.0% KOPS rank 17th
Proj K 5.5 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Ryan Weathers recent form GS+: 39, 57, 47, 38, 26

#9

Background

SF @ ATL

Pregame / / Truist Park / #9 of 9 watch rank

Park 1.0171F / 8 mph wind / 69% rain

9th matchup

Top arm

45.8

Pairing

44.1

Landen Roupp

SF

Form 42.4 · 5.87 ERA

→Steady -0.8
6d rest97 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 42.65.0 IP / 5.1 K / 3.2 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.748 OPS20.9% KOPS rank 6th
Proj K 5.1 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Landen Roupp recent form GS+: 48, 49, 20, 52, 43

Martín Pérez

ATL

Form 45.8 · 3.81 ERA

→Steady +0.0
5d rest80 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 46.05.1 IP / 4.5 K / 2.1 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.731 OPS19.9% KOPS rank 11th
Proj K 4.5 / prop pendingTeam total pending

Martín Pérez recent form GS+: 47, 48, 40, 44, 50